Europe's Energy Problem & CBRT’s Trouble with Market Interest Rates

rising. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Brent oil price moved up approximately to $130 a barrel. Nowadays, we are talking about why the price is falling. When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, it was unthinkable that prices would drop. Russia has reduced the natural gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of the amount determined in the agreements. In other words, there is a shortage in supply and therefore prices normally must rise. Nowadays, oil prices are even below the levels of the days when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out. The main reason for the recent price decline is the expectations of global recession. There have been two developments recently that have strengthened the expectations of global recession. First, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the policy rate from 2.85% to 2.75%. The aim is to try to limit the loss of activity in the Chinese economy for which growth expectations are weakening day by day. Then, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) July meeting were announced. The minutes gave a message that the Fed may raise interest rates at levels which can be considered high for the US economy. Therefore, the message that emerged from the minutes was the kind that reinforced the expectations of global recession. The minutes explain that interest rate hikes will continue unless annual consumer inflation, which stood at 8.5% as of July, falls significantly. The Fed's upcoming rate decision meetings will take place on September 21-22. Next week, Fed chair Powell will attend the annual Jackson Hole meetings which will allow him to revisit the Fed's monetary policy principles. An important factor that has strengthened the global recession expectations is the energy crisis that Europe is expected to experience due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Although European countries are taking steps to resolve the possible energy crisis in the short and long terms, the doubts and uncertainties about having the capability of accessing various energy sources also strengthen the global recession expectations. The drought associated with the climate crisis in Europe also prevents hydroelectric power plants from working efficiently.After briefly addressing the most important developments affecting the world economy, let's also reach out to Turkey, which reduced the policy rate from 14% to 13% despite soaring inflation. I made the following statements on the Turkish economy in many of my previous articles: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has lost the ability to set a certain policy course in monetary policy to manage market expectations. The policy rate cuts that started in September 2021 increased the market rates. Thus, the government and the CBRT alleges that interest rates have been reduced but interest rates have actually increased. Inflation is out of control. Instead of using monetary policy tools, money supply is tried to be controlled especially through the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA). With these practices, inflation does not decrease and the problem of high dollarization level cannot be solved either. Inconsistent and irregular practices do not bring confidence to the Turkish Lira. Thus, monetary stability cannot be achieved. I have repeatedly written that there is nothing left to write about within the framework of “policy analysis” regarding the Turkish economy. I have also frequently stated that Turkey has no alternative even to think about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel other than an election. The conditions in the absence of consistent economic policies make the economic struggle of households and companies extremely difficult. The inability of a central bank to direct the money supply and manage inflationary expectations creates uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to shortening of maturities.There are pressures on banks exerted by the BRSA. The failure of banks to divert their customers from foreign currency accounts to foreign exchange-protected deposits (KKM) to a certain extent results in penalties. In order not to pay this penalty, banks started offering alternatives to their customers. In other words, they provide significant discounts on loan interest rates to their customers who convert their money in their foreign currency accounts to KKM accounts. Especially since the end of July, these offers by banks gained momentum due to the fact that the roll-over dates of KKM accounts mostly coincided with the end of July. The credit market has calmed down considerably in recent weeks. The policy rate, which was lowered by the CBRT as of September 2021, increased the market rates because risk premiums have increased. However, after each development in which market rates rise by a few percentage points, some of the banks aim to maintain or increase their market shares at competitive prices. During these periods, for example, the market interest rate, which increased by five points on average, may decrease by one point. Each new wave creates an artificial silence after a while and then causes a new wave to come. With the policy rate cut, domestic and foreign markets once again realize that the Turkish economy is unlikely to recover before the election. After the policy rate cut, foreign exchange rates were expected to rise and they did. Higher foreign exchange rates mean higher inflation as far as Turkey’s industrial structure is concerned. There is no need to address technical issues related to the Turkish economy anymore. I have written many times that the recent developments in the Turkish economy are related more to Islamic ideology rather than economics. God determines the market prices anyway.